Why Your First Instinct Might Be Smarter Than You Think

Ever had that moment where you just knew something was off – before you had any hard evidence? Or walked into a meeting and instantly thought, “This person’s not going to last”? That’s what people call “gut feel” or instinct or intuition.

And while it’s often dismissed as woolly or unscientific – just intuition, or vibes – the truth is that gut feel has a solid scientific and psychological basis. Especially in business.

Enter Malcolm Gladwell (and a very French phrase)

In his book, Blink, Malcolm Gladwell tells the story of a US general, Paul Van Riper, who was asked to take part in a military simulation against a high-tech, data-driven task force. While they relied on massive computer models and long analysis cycles, Van Riper just looked at the situation, sized it up in seconds, and launched a rapid, instinctive attack.

He won. Badly.

Gladwell called it “thin-slicing” – the ability to make accurate decisions based on very limited information, usually in the first few seconds. It’s not magic. It’s experience.

And Van Riper’s gift has a name. The French call it coup d’œil (pronounced “koo doy”), which literally means “a glance”. But not just a glance – it’s the ability to instantly grasp the essential truth of a complex situation.

Napoleon used the term to describe what made a truly great general. Today, I’d say it applies to seasoned business owners too.

So, can you trust your gut in business?

If you’ve been running your business for a few years, there’s a strong chance that you can trust your gut – at least in areas you’ve had experience with.

Why?

Because your brain has built up a vast internal database of patterns. You’ve seen what a disengaged employee looks like before they hand in their notice. You know what a “too good to be true” sales pitch sounds like. Your subconscious spots these cues before your conscious brain catches up.

It’s not always rational. But it’s often right.

When you shouldn’t trust it

That said, gut feel only works in environments where you’ve built up experience. If you’re making a major hiring decision in a role you’ve never filled before, or choosing software when tech’s not your thing – slow down. Get advice. Trust the process.

Gut feel is a shortcut, not a substitute.

The real danger? Overthinking

One of the biggest traps I see in coaching is business owners who already know what they want to do – but spend weeks justifying, re-analysing, spreadsheeting it to death.

In most cases? Their first instinct was spot on.

So next time you catch yourself procrastinating, ask:

“If I had to decide in the next 30 seconds – what would I do?”

Chances are, your coup d’œil is trying to tell you something. It might be worth listening.

Surrounded by idiots?

If you’re highly experienced, maybe a business owner, you can sometimes secretly feel as if you’re surrounded by idiots. They struggle with an issue and eventually come to you with a question that you answer instantly and say with exasperation “It’s simple, why can’t you see that?”. Well, that’s your coup d’œil as well. It’s amazing how easy things are when you’ve had years of experience!